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Math Corner, April 23rd

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Hey Kids! Time for some math!

Chivas USA has now played six games, and boasts a record of 1-3-2. Now, I know it's early yet, but you might be asking yourself, "How are the Goats looking for the playoffs?"

We'll tell you.

Last season, 8 of 16 MLS teams made the playoffs. The last team to make the postseason, San Jose, averaged 1.5 points earned per game played. In prior seasons, the final playoff team has been in the 1.4 to 1.5 points/game range.

This year, 10 of 18 teams will make the playoffs (a slightly higher proportion than 2010). Therefore, we project the cutoff for the 2011 playoffs to be slightly lower, somewhere between 1.3 and 1.4 points per game.

Currently, Chivas USA has averaged one point per game (1-2-3, 6 games, 6 points).  However, no reason for pessimism. If we had scored just one more goal in any of our three draws, we'd be at 1.33, and right on track.

Plus, if we've learned anything from the history of MLS, it's that the first few months of the season are relatively meaningless. It's the teams heating up in August and September that usually make the most waves in the postseason.