Update: Chivas USA Playoff Chances

I just wanted to share a quick update with you concerning my story yesterday about Chivas USA's chances of making the playoffs this season. Over at the Seattle Sounders blog Sounder At Heart, a new article was just published breaking down the playoff odds and trophy chances for all of MLS. The author, sidereal, uses a different algorithm than the website I linked to yesterday, so the numbers are a little different. Still, the picture is not pretty for the Goats, all things considered, but I thought I would update you with these new projections and what they say about Chivas' chances.

Obviously, go on and take a look at the article in its entirety over at Sounder At Heart. Here's what's important for Chivas:

Playoff odds: 9.77%

The good news? This figure is ever so slightly higher than the 8% I gave you yesterday. Still, on a 100 point scale that's not much of a difference. And according to this algorithm, Chivas' odds dropped 11.83% from last week, so the loss to DC United more than halved their statistical hopes. A costly loss indeed.

By the way, Chivas' chances of winning the Supporters' Shield (regular season points champion) is obviously zero, as the Galaxy already have 55 points and Chivas cannot conceivably get to that mark this season, but they still have a 0.37% shot of winning MLS Cup. If they get into the playoffs, that is. And if they do get to the playoffs, their shot at MLS Cup rises considerably. Hope springs eternal? Ok, maybe not.

Remaining Strength of Schedule:

Lining up with my discussion of Chivas' remaining games from yesterday, Chivas' remaining strength of schedule is the 5th-toughest in the league. Real Salt Lake has a harder schedule, but they are essentially in, while the Columbus Crew and the Philadelphia Union have tougher schedules, although they are both already in playoff position. And the San Jose Earthquakes have the hardest remaining schedule, but they are farther out of the mix than even Chivas.

By the way, opposing teams got just 1.318 points per game on the Goats' remaining opponents. If Chivas were to average that in their final six matches, they would have 7.908 points, which would give them 38.908 points. If we round that up to 39 points, it would still leave them short. The latest projection is 43 points for the final playoff team, but Chivas would be 4 points short. Once again, all of this is to say that Chivas have a shot, but they need to overachieve to make it.

Can they make it happen? What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Thanks to sidereal and Sounder At Heart for providing league-wide projections!