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Never tell me the odds: LAFC’s playoff outlook

With just six matches left, we take a look at what the numbers say about LAFC’s postseason chances.

MLS: Los Angeles FC at LA Galaxy Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

There are only six matches, 18 maximum points, left in LAFC’s 2021 campaign. Theoretically, the team can win out, and finish with a whopping 52 points to close out the season, and cement a playoff spot for themselves. Will that happen? Probably not, but despite how rough this year has gone, the numbers show not all is lost. In fact, far from it!

Perusing through statistical websites, as one does on a Sunday evening, we came across the playoff odds for all the teams in the MLS. The fine folks at FiveThirtyEight have compiled a table that shows where the MLS teams stand, odds of a playoff appearance, MLS Cup appearance, and odds of winning it all.

Of course, there are the Seattle Sounders, with >99% chance, and Real Salt Lake, with a hefty 71% chance at reaching the postseason. Then, there are the San Jose Quakes, who are just a point behind LAFC, with a mere 8% chance. We know why you're here though, the black-and-gold.

Heading into their match next week against San Jose, LAFC have a 42% chance at making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. Surprisingly good odds, all things considered. It means, that of the teams fighting for a place in the postseason, FiveThirtyEight believe LAFC have the best chance to secure a spot. Honestly, why shouldn't they?


Will LAFC make the playoffs?

This poll is closed

  • 52%
    (10 votes)
  • 47%
    (9 votes)
19 votes total Vote Now

Almost every statistic — advanced and basic — shows how well LAFC have been, in terms of continuing to play ‘their football.’ They are just outside the top 10 in goals scored, only four behind Seattle. They are amongst the upper half of the league in passing, general attacking, and, even defending. The only statistic that hasn't shown up enough, wins. Which, for a team as incredibly talented as LAFC, can start to come at anytime. With a critical match against San Jose ahead, and matches against Minnesota and Vancouver on the schedule, this is a team not only very much mathematically in it, but talented enough to make some noise.

We want your thoughts! Above is a poll to vote in. Thoughts on LAFC’s playoff chances? Leave a comment below!